Global development in the Twenty-first Century: the maturation of global development – responses to three critiques

Abstract

Modern economic development does not travel for long in a straight line. Making sense of the periodic changes in direction is the never-ending challenge of economic analysis. My 2015 Holmes Lecture took up the challenge of explaining new twists and turns in the 21st century. Productivity and output growth are markedly lower in the developed countries, especially but not only since the great crash of 2008.  The populations of the developed countries are ageing rapidly and the labour forces declining or growing slowly. Global savings are high and investment low, giving rise to historically low real interest rates.