Social policy, cold climates and economic recessions

Abstract

The aim of this article is to consider what could happen to social policy expenditure and parameters in a worst case scenario, if the financial crisis spills over into the goods and services sector. Academics are very good at making ex post analyses of why certain events occurred, and extrapolating  from this past experience to predict the future, but the future will be different. The starting point will not be the same –people have learnt from the past and have different reactions, the context will vary, and the political players and ideology will have changed. The policy adviser has to be forward thinking, anticipating events. It is in this context that this article is written.