What might a future global climate change deal look like?

Abstract

For the world to have a reasonable chance of avoiding the worst effects of climate change, the challenge is have global emissions of greenhouse gases peak by 2020 and then to reduce them to 50% of 1990 levels by 2050. These goals have been articulated by international science and policy leaders – the second even by the heads of state of the G8 countries at their recent 2008 meeting in Japan. For industrialised countries, the challenge is much greater than just the global percentages. Figure 1, taken from the recently released report by Tony Blair and The Climate Group (Climate Group, 2008), shows an illustrative set of pathways for global emissions and shares of this for industrialised and developing countries.