From Disaster Response to Anticipatory Governance: why Aotearoa New Zealand’s long-term resilience thinking must address global catastrophic risk and systemic vulnerabilities

Authors

  • Matt Boyd
  • Nick Wilson University of Otago, Wellington

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26686/pq.v21i4.10337

Keywords:

anticipatory governance, disaster risk reduction, global catastrophic risk, polycrisis, metacrisis, resilience, systemic risk

Abstract

The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet’s 2025 draft briefing on long-term hazard resilience is commendable in emphasising anticipatory governance. However, it still exemplifies broader limitations in risk assessment focusing on familiar local
natural hazards while excluding global catastrophic risk. We examine how current risk reduction approaches remain trapped
within frameworks addressing symptoms rather than systemic forces. Effective resilience requires expanding hazard scope to include
global hazards: large-scale (nuclear) conflict, large global volcanic eruptions, and bioengineered pandemics. Building resilience to
these and similar risks requires recognising cascade dynamics and implementing transparent approaches to generalised resilience to
ensure basic needs.

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Author Biographies

Matt Boyd

Matt Boyd is founder of Adapt Research Ltd and executive director of registered charity Islands for the Future of Humanity; he researches global catastrophic risk.

Nick Wilson, University of Otago, Wellington

Nick Wilson is a research professor of public health at the University of Otago Wellington. His current research interests are focused on building resilience against catastrophic risks, particularly severe pandemics and nuclear war.

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Published

2025-11-09

Issue

Vol. 21 No. 4 (2025): Policy Quarterly

Section

Articles

License

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