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Articles

Vol. 69 No. 1 (2012)

Principles of scientific method: Notes on Lectures by Dr K.R. Popper given at the University of Otago, 22–26 May 1945; Lecture 4. Probability

  • K. R. Popper
DOI
https://doi.org/10.26686/nzsr.v69.8808
Submitted
December 7, 2023
Published
2023-12-07

Abstract

Consideration of probability is necessary to finish up the case against induction.If we say that a certain hypothesis is probable, we may mean:

• I think this hypothesis good (a subjective judgement), or I hope this hypothesis may not be falsified pretty soon;
• probability in a more technical sense, i.e. something which follows laws of mathematical probability theory. For example, the probability of an event happening plus probability of an event not happening – 1 (probability of an event happening is never greater than one), e.g. dice throwing.

Right back to Hume we find the idea that inductively one cannot derive a law, but just a high probability of a law, i.e. it seems that one can have a watering down of law. For example, we could determine say 90 per cent of all men drink tea, Socrates is a man, therefore a 90 percent conclusion that Socrates drinks tea. This is the simplest way to show that there is a prima facie view that by inductivism we could establish the probability of a hypothesis.

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