Occupational and Industry Forecasts of Employment: Implications for Maori

Abstract

The period of low economic growth from the mid 1980s to early 1990s has impacted particularly severely on Maori. In June 1994 the unemployment rate for Maori was 19.8 per cent as opposed to 7.1 per cent for non-Maori. Maori tend to be over-represented in manual occupations and in a number of industries particularly affected by economic restructuring. As part of a wider programme assessing Maori development, educational and training options Te Puni Kokiri commissioned Business and Economic Research Ltd (BERL) to produce a set of occupational and industry forecasts of employment in New Zealand for the year 2000. 1991 Census material was used to provide a detailed 25 occupation by 21 industry analysis of employment differentiated by sex and ethnicity, which was used as a base for projections. The forecasts to the year 2000 have been generated through the linked usage of a medium term three sector model of the economy, which produces macro-economic trend forecasts, and a 21 sector version of the BERL general equilibrium model. The general equilibrium model has been extended to include 25 occupational categories and a vector of occupational substitution elasticities. The forecasts suggest that the predominant areas of employment growth will be in non-manual activities and in distribution and service industries.