Using Bayesian Models To Forecast International Arrivals And Departures By Age, Sex, And Region In New Zealand

  • John Bryant Statistics New Zealand
  • Kirsten Nissen Statistics New Zealand

Abstract

Statistics New Zealand prepares regular population projections at the subnational level. Like other statistical agencies, Statistics NZ currently uses a deterministic approach to subnational projections. However, we are currently developing an alternative, more statistical, approach. In this paper, we describe two Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating and forecasting international in-migration and out-migration rates, disaggregated by age, sex, and territorial authority. The model uses international arrivals and departures data for 1991-2013, and produces forecasts for 2014-2039. Special attention is given to the ability of the model to estimate migration rates for small population domains. The modelled approach provides a coherent and integrated measure of uncertainty at the detailed demographic level. Examples of estimated and forecasted migration rates are presented. We conclude with a discussion of the challenges and limitations of the data and model, and directions for future developments.
Published
2015-05-05
How to Cite
BRYANT, John; NISSEN, Kirsten. Using Bayesian Models To Forecast International Arrivals And Departures By Age, Sex, And Region In New Zealand. Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand, [S.l.], may 2015. ISSN 2463-2600. Available at: <https://ojs.victoria.ac.nz/LEW/article/view/3672>. Date accessed: 23 sep. 2019. doi: https://doi.org/10.26686/lew.v0i0.3672.

Keywords

Bayesian Models; in-migration; out-migration