Forecasting Migration Flows for New Zealand: Arrivals of New and Returning New Zealanders & Departing by Destinations

Authors

  • Xintao Zhao Department of Labour Wellington
  • Ram SriRamaratnam Department of Labour Wellington
  • Dirk van Seventer Department of Labour Wellington

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26686/lew.v0i0.1688

Abstract

The purpose of this paper was to outline the methods and to report results of an econometric attempt to forecast New Zealand migration flows. Flows were decomposed into eight components: two relating to arrivals and six components relating to departures by several destinations. Linear time series regression and the Holt­Winters exponential smoothing method were applied to quarterly data from June 1978 to June 2008 or from March 1990 to June 2008. Within­sample mean absolute percentage errors were presented and full­sample estimates from June 1978 to September 2010 or from March 1990 to September 2010 were used to forecast migration flows for each component for the next two years.

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Author Biography

Dirk van Seventer, Department of Labour Wellington

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Published

2010-11-06

Issue

2010: Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand

Section

Articles

License

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