Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand

Using Bayesian Models To Forecast International Arrivals And Departures By Age, Sex, And Region In New Zealand

John Bryant — 2015-05-11

Statistics New Zealand prepares regular population projections at the subnational level. Like other statistical agencies, Statistics NZ currently uses a deterministic approach to subnational projections. However, we are currently developing an alternative, more statistical, approach. In this paper, we describe two Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating and forecasting international in-migration and out-migration rates, disaggregated by age, sex, and territorial authority. The model uses international arrivals and departures data for 1991-2013, and produces forecasts for 2014-2039. Special attention is given to the ability of the model to estimate migration rates for small population domains. The modelled approach provides a coherent and integrated measure of uncertainty at the detailed demographic level. Examples of estimated and forecasted migration rates are presented. We conclude with a discussion of the challenges and limitations of the data and model, and directions for future developments.

Non-Cognitive Abilities And Labor Market Outcomes: The Role Of Work Ethic And Personality Traits On Supervisory Status And Promotion

Yu-Wei Luke Chu — 2015-05-11

A growing literature suggests that noncognitive abilities are important determinants of earnings. But empirical research on nonwage labor market outcomes is still limited due to data availability. In this paper, we collect employer-employee linked data from six former socialist countries and estimate three noncognitive abilities: adherence to work ethic, the preference for challenge versus affiliation, and locus of control, and their relationship with workers’ supervisory status and promotions. We find that these noncognitive abilities are strong predictors of the likelihood of being a supervisor and being promoted as well as the number of supervisees and promotions. We also study the role of noncognitive abilities in the gender gap in these labor market outcomes. Based on a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, gender differences in these noncognitive abilities can explain a modest proportion of the gender gap in supervisory status and promotions.

Policy Responses To Workforce Ageing – Existing, Potential And A Report Card For New Zealand

Judith A. Davey — 2015-05-11

Arguments for encouraging prolonged participation in the paid workforce by older people, based on individual, social, economic and business benefits, are set out in the literature and reflected in public policy. Individual decisions about participation are influenced by external factors and personal attributes. The ability to realise aspirations and preferences in the labour market depends on the social, economic and policy context and on employers’ actions and attitudes. Drawing on local and international literature as well as interviews with employers and representatives of public and private sector organisations, this paper examines policy responses to workforce ageing; both current and potential initiatives. Many of these relate to fiscal concerns and focus on retirement income policy; others aim to influence the behaviour of employers or to assist older workers. This leads to comment on and an evaluation of the New Zealand policy context with respect to workforce ageing.

Should Paid Workforce Participation By Older People Be Encouraged? Evaluating The Pros And Cons

Judith A. Davey — 2015-05-11

The policies of many developed countries now aim to encourage older people to remain longer in the paid workforce. What are the pros and cons of this position? Longer lives and better health in later life provide opportunities for prolonging workforce participation. There is considerable evidence that having meaningful and appropriate work is beneficial to the physical, psychological and financial wellbeing of older people. Demographic trends suggest that labour and skills shortages will become more pressing in the future as younger people entering the workforce do not balance the numbers retiring. Firms which understand the implications of ageing will be better placed to address its challenges. Older workers represent a valuable and often untapped source of increased productivity. But how can we ensure that their working conditions are appropriate rather than precarious? There are social and economic benefits from having an economically active older population. It will contribute to economic growth and the maintenance of living standards and also, through taxation, help to meet the costs of an ageing population. But what about the impact on the employment prospects of young workers and on voluntary work?

Re-Gendering Of The Workforce: Women And Men In “Non-Traditional” Occupations And Industries

Robert Didham — 2015-05-11

Many occupations and industries have traditionally remained the preserve of either men or women. In recent years, a range of campaigns and policies have focussed on equity for women and equality of opportunity for both men and women in the work force. This paper looks at some of the background, ongoing discrimination and the forces acting for and against gender balance which has brought about some re-gendering of occupations.

Sex, Migration And Aging: Demographic Overview Of A Dynamic Labour Market

Robert Didham — 2015-05-11

This paper provides a broad overview of some of the demographic features of the work force in the context of the population as a whole. In this respect it differs from other papers in that it provides a background picture against which topics discussed elsewhere can be measured. The purpose is to provide context for discussion and a background to contextualise labour market research. The three key themes of sex, migration and change to identify the connection between the population and the policy drivers that impinge on the labour market.

Occupational Transitions: A Cohort Analysis Of Transitions Between Occupation Classes 1981 To 2006

Robert Didham — 2015-05-11

This paper is limited to presenting an initial look at the New Zealand Linked Census. The intention here is limited to describing the NZ Linked Census, providing an example of how this new dataset can be used in the wider context of labour market themes, and promoting the dataset as a powerful tool for new and ground breaking longitudinal research.

Mothers in the New Zealand workforce

Sophie Flynn — 2015-05-11

Motherhood is a significant factor in how women participate in paid work. Women are likely to restructure their work arrangements or withdraw from the labour market while caring for dependent children (OECD, 2011). However, women’s participation in the labour force has increased over time, in part due to more mothers remaining in and re-entering the labour market. The purpose of this paper is to look at the demographic and labour force characteristics of women in the prime parenting age group (those aged 25–49 years), in relation to their parent and partner statuses. Data from the Household Labour Force Survey and the Survey of Working Life are used to create a picture of these different groups of women over time, to identify the factors affecting a mother’s ability to participate in the labour market, and to understand how work arrangements and conditions for employed mothers differ from employed non-mothers’.

Where Have They Gone? Changes In Occupations Using 1991-2013 New Zealand Census Data

Andrew Hancock — 2015-05-11

Over the period 1991 to 2013 they way in which occupations have been reported and classified in the New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings has changed. To look at the high level trends, an analysis of the top thirty occupations that have the highest counts in census data in that time period based on the New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (NZSCO) has been undertaken. The purpose of this analysis is to have a time-series barometer to see whether respondents change the way in which they respond, and to determine if occupation reporting is reflecting changes in the real world of the New Zealand labour market. A comparison is made using the Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO) to identify if classification changes have an impact. Have some of the old occupations really disappeared or are they being reported differently? Has the way the occupations are classified, and the changes in the classifications caused some interesting trends. What impact has been experienced with the introduction of a trans-Tasman classification? Are there new and emerging occupations in this top group and are there any labour market sectors that are not appropriately represented? The paper discusses the role of an occupational classification in relation to the processing of the responses given to the five yearly population census question on occupation, and questions whether the statistical need for processing survey responses has affected the viability of the classification for labour market analysis.

Measuring Unemployment: A Composition Model

Fraser Jackson — 2015-05-11

In looking at statistics of the labour market, the labour force status categories are often considered as independent, but when expressed as proportions they are observations over a simplex of non-negative components summing to 1. This leads to serious deficiencies in the conventional tools of analysis, and a framework commonly referred to as compositional modelling has been developed to address them. This paper explores the application of these tools to labour force data and demonstrates simple consistent patterns between job search (unemployment) and current participation levels across both aggregate and age and gender sub populations. Unlike previous uses of composition models in labour market studies we use a simple transform with a direct interpretation for our analysis.

Analysis Of The Proposed $18.40 Living Wage

Anita King — 2015-05-11

Over the last two years, a campaign has been running to pay employees a “living wage” of $18.40/hr (recently increased to $18.80/hr). Using cross-tabulations of data from the Household Economic Survey 2010/11, this work looks at who in New Zealand is currently receiving wages below this level, by age, family type, education level, industry, gender, and ethnicity. This group has proportionately higher numbers of people who are under 30, or who are single adults without dependents. It does not take into account labour supply and demand effects, nor does it consider wage relativity effects on those currently earning above the living wage. We also calculate the increase in disposable income for a variety of different family types if they were to increase their wages from the minimum wage to the living wage, and find that those that are currently receiving the most government assistance (usually families with dependent children) benefit the least from this increase due to the abatement of that assistance.

Safe at work? Employee experiences of workplace health and safety

Carrie-Anne Lynch — 2015-05-11

Health and safety is an important issue for New Zealand workers. It is accepted that some types of work have more inherent health and safety risks than others; however it is important that employees experiences of different types of health and safety issues, as well as their perceptions of how well their employers manage risks, are looked at in greater depth.

The Survey of Working Life (2012) asked employed people how often, in the previous 12 months, they had experienced:
· physical problems or pain because of work
· stress from being at work, or the work itself stressful
· tiredness from work that affected life outside of work
· discrimination, harassment or bullying at work.

This paper aims to look what role – if any - age, sex, industry, occupation, and employment relationship played in the results. Using the same breakdowns, employee’s perceptions of health and safety risk management, and whether they felt they had reasonable opportunities to contribute to improving health and safety in their workplace will also be explored in further detail.

NEET by choice? Investigating the links between motherhood and NEET status

Sean Molloy — 2015-05-11

This paper investigates the propensity of young mothers aged 15 to 24 to be not in employment, education and training. Not all young mothers are out of labour force and many are involved in education. Additionally, those that are NEET may not be by choice. We identify areas for further investigation and policy response.

Women In Paid Employment – The Care Factor

Suzy Morrissey — 2015-05-11

63.7% of women are now in some form of paid employment in New Zealand, which is in line with the OECD average of 65%. However, of those women, approximately a third in part-time paid employment and women make up over two-thirds of all part-time workers.

One of the most cited reasons for women’s limited participation in, or absence from, the labour market is the cost and availability of childcare. In New Zealand, as in many other countries, mothers still undertake the vast majority of care for children. This paper examines the childcare situation in New Zealand. Taking a broad perspective of what is captured by the term ‘childcare’, it outlines the various types of government support currently provided to children up to age 13, and summarises the total cost of funding.

The purpose of the paper is to collate information about the range of services provided by the government which incorporate an element of care. This information can be analysed by academics and policy makers to determine whether the services currently provided are efficient and effective, and meets the needs of parents.

The paper also raises two issues for further consideration, which it does not address itself. Firstly, the various mechanisms for government support, in terms of demand-led and supply-side funding, and whether they should be targeted or universal. Secondly, the types of childcare which are not government funded – the informal childcare provided by family, particularly grandparents and older siblings, and friends. These areas may be of relevant future research, particularly if change to the current situation is desired.

Beyond Mainstream Labour Market Theory And Precarity: Towards An Alternative To The Neoliberal Model Of Development

David Neilson — 2015-05-11

This paper contextualises contemporary precarity within a mid-range focus on labour market segmentation that takes Marx’s long-range theory of the ‘relative surplus population’ as its point of departure. It also briefly outlines an alternative ‘model of development’ which could address the increasing precarity of a growing proportion of the world’s population. It first sets out a critical analysis of core elements of mainstream accounts of the labour market, which is a point of comparison in the later sections. The paper ends with an exploratory discussion about how neo-Marxist analysis can supplement Keynesianism, and how both need to be re-focused more clearly on the need to design a post-neoliberal model of development.

Renewing New Zealand Unions: The Service And Food Workers’ Union & Living Wage Aotearoa

Annabel Newman — 2015-05-11

Trade unions and trade unionism are under serious threat in most industrialised countries, in what has been referred to as the ‘crisis in trade unionism’. The crisis is common to trade unions across the globe, consisting of a decline in membership and density, coupled with a loss of political influence and social standing. The crisis has been caused by changes in the political economies of the industrially developed nations. Social Movement Unionism (SMU) is one of the strategies to combat this crisis which has been embraced by unions and union movements in many of the Liberal Market Economies (LME). In the context of New Zealand, Jane Parker has looked at the possibility of SMU at a union movement level. However, at a single union level, the Service and Food Workers’ Union (SFWU) has engaged with this vision of renewal through participation in the Living Wage Movement Aotearoa New Zealand (LWANZ).

This paper will seek to place the SFWU’s engagement with this campaign within a theoretical framework of union renewal; that is, a re-imagining of trade union relationships in order to (re-)gain power along various dimensions. We will further consider the SMU literature and will draw on three concepts identified by Ross in her analysis of social unionism: the ethos, or “collective action frame”; the strategies or “repertoire”; and, the “internal organisational practices”, and how these interlink with the literature on union renewal. Of particular note will be the response of both the union and non-union participants in the LWANZ to the development of their relationships, and whether and how this is contributing to the successes of LWANZ and of union renewal.

The State of the New Zealand Labour Market

David Paterson — 2015-05-11

This paper will review recent developments in the New Zealand labour market and trace the passage of these indicators through the global financial crisis to the outlook for the coming 3 years. The paper is based on the Ministry’s Quarterly Labour Market report and Short-term Employment Forecasts. The paper describes a strong labour market. Indicators of labour demand growth have moderated from the elevated levels recorded earlier in 2014, but remain solid. Construction is a significant source of employment demand across the entire country, and not just Canterbury. Migration-led population growth and near-record labour force participation rates are expanding labour supply. Women in general are showing increased involvement in the labour market: the female labour force participation rate returned to its record high of 63.7 per cent (equal to that recorded in March 2014), and the female employment rate (59.7 per cent) is at its highest rate since December 2008. Single mothers in particular have seen a sharp increase in their employment rate, which has reached its highest level since the series began in 1986. High participation is likely slowing the fall in the unemployment rate, which nevertheless hit its lowest level since March 2009. Wage growth remains subdued over the September quarter, but this comes against the backdrop of low inflation.

E Tu Ake! Investment In Wāhine Māori And Pasifika Women

Riripeti Reedy — 2015-05-11

Increasing the economic contribution of women who are at risk of having low lifetime incomes is a priority of the Ministry of Women's Affairs. Using the Māori and Pacific Trades Training initiative as a policy entry-point, this paper re-examines data related to this target group and explores the implications of this ‘new’ data to contribute to improving the economic independence of Māori and Pasifika women with low or no qualifications. Drawing on the findings of the E Tu Ake! Stand Tall and Proud report released by the Ministry for Women, the paper extends those findings to better direct us as policy makers and influencers within the broader policy-workforce interface and in our discussions with employers to more relevantly support these women.

Ageing Of The Workforce: Effects On The Labour Market With Participation And Retirement

Ram SriRamaratnam — 2015-05-11

Ageing of the work force in New Zealand is an important determinant of labour market dynamics. In addition to the median age and the proportion of workers in retirement age, the nature of occupations and health and financial security are also important determinants of participation and retirement.

The baby boom generation has approached their retirement years and the age structure of the working age population has also significantly altered. Consequently, the retirement of older workers is expected to make-up an important source of new job openings over the coming decades.

Estimating and forecasting likely future retirement rates by occupational groups is of considerable interest, and provides further insights into labour market dynamics.

In this study, recent historical retirement rates for broad (3-digit) ANZSCO occupational groups were derived using an internationally accepted methodology known as the cohort component method, adapted to allow for some participation by older age groups. Occupational employment data by age extracted from the recently released 2013 Census was analysed along with the corresponding data from the 2006 Census to estimate the average retirement rates over the 2006-13 period. These rates are then used to project future retirement rates over the 2013-20 period for the same broad occupational groups. Projections were based on the Working Age Population projections for age groups and their associated participation rates.

Hazy “Career Clarity” Can Career Crafting Bring It into Focus?

Mohini Sukhapure — 2015-05-11

This research proposes a new theory for explaining career progression and guiding individuals to chart their career pathways. It focusses tightly on how one thinks about and manages the range of activities involved in making their career. The study examines the career journeys of accounting professionals in mainstream firms and academia in New Zealand. A qualitative approach was used for collecting data. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 participants. Analysis used NVivo software. The exploration revealed a continuum of career clarity with respect to formulation of career goals. Only eight participants seemed to have perfect clarity about their initial goals, whereas twenty-four participants have clarity with regard to current and future career goals. The main influences were the deliberate efforts of career crafting, the role of family and organization. Characteristics of crafters are identified, and scope for future research is discussed.

Finnish Developmental Work Research (Dwr) – A Powerful Research Paradigm With Policy Possibilities?

Rupert Tipples — 2015-05-11

Finnish Developmental Work Research (DWR) has been used in New Zealand by WEB Research, who have been world leading exponents of the approach. Over a twenty year period they used the approach in such varied research locales as the public sector (IRD, Immigration, NZQA), public/private organizations (Dutch Rail; the New Zealand Pip Fruit and Dairy Industries), and the private sector (a furniture manufacturer, two meat companies; and in the Wool and Meat Industries).

However, the requirements of the approach, and of Cultural Historical Activity Theory (CHAT) on which it is based, often did not sit comfortably with the New Zealand research environment at the end of the twentieth century. Consequently, sometimes research was foreclosed early before full results were apparent.

This presentation will review the original DWR research approach and WEB’s use of it. It will then contrast two recent New Zealand primary industry applications in the Pip Fruit and Dairy Industries. The former led to spectacular policy success with the development and adoption of the Recognised Seasonal Employer scheme. The latter’s research component has been terminated. Application of the research results now rests with DairyNZ, the sponsors of the project, who have taken the extension of the research into their own hands. Conclusions are drawn on the key components of a successful application of the approach.

Drivers of employment outcomes amongst skilled migrants to Australia

Justin van de Ven — 2015-05-11

During the last 2 decades Australia has very substantially increased its skilled migration intake to off-set the effects of declining fertility and increased longevity. Between 1996 and 2011, permanent arrivals in Australia rose from 85000 to 195000 per year, with 83 per cent of the increase accounted for by migration through the Skill Stream. Furthermore, since the mid-2000s Australian skilled migration policy has shifted from a “supply driven” model that favoured independent General Skilled Migrants, to a “hybrid model” that balances supply driven migration against Employer Sponsored “demand driven” migration. van de Ven and Voitchovsky (2014) report estimates for the period between 2005 and 2009, which indicate that this shift to a hybrid model for selection substantively improved labour market outcomes amongst skilled migrants. Here we explore the channels through which improved labour market outcomes were achieved. Our investigation emphasises the likely importance of English language and experience in delivering improved employment outcomes, aspects that are imperfectly controlled for in our first empirical study.

New Zealand’s Migrant Asian Nurses: Recent Trends, Future Plans

Léonie Walker — 2015-05-11

Nurses make up the largest component of the health workforce. New Zealand currently has around 47 thousand registered and enrolled nurses, of whom, about a quarter originally trained overseas. For the last six consecutive years, new overseas registrations have approximately equalled or exceeded the number of New Zealand trained new registrations, with 19 per cent of all new registrations in 2013 coming from India, China and South East Asia. The average age of nurses in New Zealand is now 48, and attracting and retaining younger nurses (both New Zealand and overseas educated) will be essential if the predicted increase in demand for nurses due to an ageing population coincides with peak retirement of older nurses in approximately fifteen years. Using multiple data sources, this paper summarises these changes and reports the findings related to career plans reported by Asian respondents from a recent New Zealand Nurses Organisation (NZNO) survey (the New 2 NZNO study) that have potentially serious implications for the sustainability of New Zealand’s nursing workforce. Foremost among these is that modelling assumptions currently proposed to ensure an adequate nursing workforce are likely to severely overestimate the effectiveness of relying on internationally trained nurses to fill a predicted skill shortage long term.

Immigrants' Location Choices, Geographic Concentration, and Employment in New Zealand

Xingang Wang — 2015-05-11

TBC

Issues For Women’s Leadership Pathways In Large Organisations

Maria Williamson — 2015-05-11

This paper proposes that work cultural changes are needed to increase opportunities for women to achieve at the highest level, and stop them from dropping out of the ‘leadership pipeline’. The research identifies three barriers to women continuing to advance their careers at the same rate as men. These barriers have been identified as:

unconscious bias against women taking up leadership roles – this can affect recruitment, assessment and development practices (both formal and informal) at every level within an organisation, and can make it more difficult for women to progress into senior leadership roles.
employer attitudes to breaks in employment (for example, for child-rearing), or a non-traditional career path (for example, community leadership or executive roles), can make it difficult for women to re-enter the mainstream workforce and to maintain an upward career trajectory.
lack of options for flexible work, or workplace culture which applies informal or formal penalties for using flexible work options, mean that women can stop progressing in their career, or leave the workforce altogether.

The evidence behind this analysis, and the solutions available including actions that have the most impact, are set out in two reports published by the Ministry of Women’s Affairs: Realising the opportunity: addressing New Zealand’s leadership pipeline by attracting and retaining talented women (2013); and Inspiring Action: action plans and research to help you attract and retain talented women (2014).

Does Distance Still Matter For Internal Migration And, If So, How? Evidence From 1986 To 2006

Omoniyi Alimi — 2015-05-11

In this paper we re-examine the structure of internal migration flows in New Zealand. We use data on gross migration flows between the 39 main and secondary urban areas for the four intercensal periods between 1986 and 2006. We confirm that the gravity model – in which migration is inversely related to distance – fits the data well, and that the way in which distance is measured (travel time, road distance or straight-line distance) matters to some extent for the goodness of fit of the model. We also show that some forms of socioeconomic differences influence migration in the same way as distance. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that the deterrence effect of distance on migration was increasing, at least until 2001. Improvements in connectivity through reduced travel time have not increased migration flows.