An Analysis of Exit Rates and Duration Dependence in Registered Unemployment

Abstract

Administrative records held by the Department of Labour on people registered as unemployed provide an invaluable and unique source of information regarding the dynamics of the unemployed. This paper provides a description of the unemployment database created from these records, and the results of an analysis which investigates the probability of exiting the unemployment register. An attempt is made to separate the heterogeneity effect from the duration dependence effect. The results indicate that the possession of different characteristics affect an individual’s chances of exiting the register and that the results are consistent with the presence of a duration dependence effect.